On 27 May 2026, Ofgem confirms the energy price cap for July to September. Current forecasts say it's going up — and not by a small amount.
Cornwall Insight's latest projection puts the July cap at around £1,837 per year for a typical household on a standard variable tariff. Other analysts have gone higher: EDF at £1,937, E.ON at £1,955. The current cap — the one you're paying under right now — is £1,641 until 30 June.
So on current forecasts, a typical household is looking at an extra £200–£315 a year from July. That's £17–£26 more a month, for exactly the same energy.
The question is whether to fix your tariff now, while you still can lock in a rate below those forecasts. Here's the maths, and the judgement call behind it.
What "fixing" actually means
A fixed energy tariff locks your unit rates (pence per kWh for gas and electricity) and your standing charge for a set period — usually 12 or 24 months. The price cap doesn't apply to you while you're fixed. You're insulated from quarterly cap changes, for better or worse.
If the cap goes up in July and you're fixed below that level, you win. If the cap somehow drops instead, and you're fixed above it, you lose — though most fixed tariffs now include a 30-day exit window at the end, and some let you leave early for a small fee.
The whole bet is about where the cap goes over the next 12 months, not just on 1 July.
The maths on a typical household
Assume a typical dual-fuel household using 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas per year.
Staying on the price cap for the next 12 months, with the July forecast coming true:
- 3 months at £1,641/year = £410
- 9 months at £1,837/year = £1,378
- Total: roughly £1,788
That assumes the cap holds at around £1,837 for the full nine months. In reality it'll shift every quarter. October and January caps are anyone's guess.
Fixing today for 12 months at, say, £1,720 per year (a realistic rate on current comparison sites, typically 4–6% above the current cap): total £1,720.
That's a saving of roughly £68 over the year. Not huge, but real. And the bigger the July rise, the more the fix is worth.
If EDF or E.ON's forecasts are closer to the truth (£1,937–£1,955 in July), fix savings widen to £140–£155 over 12 months.
Punch your own usage into a comparison site for a proper read. The numbers above are illustrative — a small household or a large one will see meaningfully different figures.
When fixing makes sense
Fix if one or more of these applies:
- You want certainty over savings — knowing exactly what you'll pay each month is worth something, especially with a baby, a mortgage, or tight margins.
- Your usage is above average. The bigger your bill, the more a percentage swing matters.
- You can find a fix priced at or below 5% above the current cap (around £1,723 for a typical household).
- You don't want to be checking tariffs every three months for the next year.
When it doesn't
Don't fix if:
- You're on a specialist or time-of-use tariff that already beats the cap — e.g. an EV overnight rate like Octopus Go or Intelligent Octopus.
- You have solar PV or a battery and most of your import happens off-peak. A fix takes away that flexibility.
- The only fixes available are priced above £1,850 for a typical household.
- You're planning to move in the next few months — check exit fees and portability.
What to do this week
Five practical steps, in order:
- Find your current annual cost — check your latest bill or supplier app for the projected annual figure.
- Check Uswitch, MoneySavingExpert's Cheap Energy Club, or Energy Helpline. Look at fixed deals specifically.
- Compare the best fix against the July forecast. Below £1,837 is worth considering; below £1,723 is a strong case.
- Check exit terms — usually £25–£75 per fuel, but some fixes are penalty-free.
- Decide before 27 May. Once Ofgem confirms, suppliers pull their best fixed deals within days.
The short answer
If you're on a standard variable tariff, using average or above-average energy, and you can find a 12-month fix priced within 5% of the current cap — fix. The forecasts all point the same way, even if they disagree on the exact number. The downside of fixing is small; the downside of waiting is measurable.
If you're on a smart or EV tariff that's already working for your household, don't fix. The flexibility is worth more than the hedge.
And if you're undecided: set aside 20 minutes this weekend, run the comparison, and make the call before Ofgem announces on 27 May. Good deals move fast in the fortnight before a confirmed rise.
That's the kind of decision we're building The Home Concierge to take off your plate entirely — but this one's urgent enough that it's worth the 20 minutes yourself.